The Pebble and the Avalanche

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Current Revolutions in Business and Technology

by Dr. Moshe Yudkowsky,

author of The Pebble and The Avalanche: How Taking Things Apart Creates Revolutions

 

Tue, 2006-Mar-14, 09:30

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In Twenty Years, No Beef

Twenty years from now, beef may be impossible to find because no one can afford to sell it. The legal profession provides valuable services to society, but unfortunately there's a segment involved in manufacturing: they manufacture legal theories that result in lawsuits, and I predict those lawsuits will close the beef business.

One of the most interesting techniques to manufacture lawsuits is to break the connection between the product that produces harm and the actual manufacturer of that product. As a recent example of this long-term trend, paint manufacturers in Rhode Island lost a lawsuit filed against them. The plantiffs didn't have to prove a connection between any particular home, the damage caused by paint in that home, and the individual manufacturer; the plantiffs simply had to prove that the manufacturer sold lead paint in the past.

How does this appply to beef? It's quite straightforward. Another cow infected with mad-cow disease was discovered recently in the US, which brings the total number discovered to three. I think it's inevitable that human will show symptoms of BCE in the next twenty years — and then all hell will break loose. Lawyers will alledge harm not just to that one individual, but to all persons who ate beef in the US (e.g., "anxiety"). And they won't have to prove that some individual butcher, middleman, or farm sold the beef; they'll sue the industry as a whole. The resulting settlements could easily shut down the entire cattle industry, especially since "activist" groups who are opposed to beef production will likely use the disease as an excuse to file lawsuits against small farmers.

Can this be stopped? Certainly, with a moderate amount of legal reform. Will it be stopped? So far all attempts to reform the lawsuit industry have failed...

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