The Pebble and the Avalanche

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Current Revolutions in Business and Technology

by Dr. Moshe Yudkowsky,

author of The Pebble and The Avalanche: How Taking Things Apart Creates Revolutions

 

Mon, 2007-Nov-19, 08:35

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Google's Gold

People continue to speculate on just how Google will provide telecommunications service if they win the auction for a portion of the wireless spectrum. Typically, an analyst will point out that Google has no core expertise in wireless networks and — here's the assumption — therefore Google must have a wireless provider partner. The usual suspect is Sprint.

Expanding into a unrelated area is the typical hubris that infects large corporations. Remember AT&T's disastrous excursions into computers, on the rationale that since AT&T used computers, they must therefore be experts in how to build and sell them? AT&T's purchase of NCR probably helped destroy AT&T.

But so far, Google has been very, very smart; at the same time, Google has pursued old businesses in new ways. If I had to guess, I would say that Google has something entirely different up their sleeves if they win the wireless spectrum. After all, Google has plenty of experience running wireless Internet networks, and as a condition of purchase of the wireless spectrum, access to the spectrum must be relatively open. What if Google purchases the spectrum and creates a wireless, VoIP network instead of a traditional cellular network? What if they simply sell Internet minutes instead of cellular service minutes? What if they simply sell unlimited wireless Internet access and forgoe the pain and suffering (and hideous cost) of billing cellular service on a per-minute basis?

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