The Pebble and the Avalanche

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Current Revolutions in Business and Technology

by Dr. Moshe Yudkowsky,

author of The Pebble and The Avalanche: How Taking Things Apart Creates Revolutions

 

Tue, 2007-Dec-25, 05:02

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Not Everyone Wants to Network Everything

Recently the social networking site Facebook survived a fiasco with its Beacon project. If you were a member of Facebook and, e.g., rented a movie from Blockbuster online, Beacon broadcast that fact to all your Facebook "friends" (a bit of Facebook jargon meaning "people to whom you have elected to reveal certain limited information") without your consent. This provoked a backlash against Facebook, which dropped the program in response to a revolt by its customers. So far Blockbuster hasn't been sued, even though there's a decent-sounding legal theory that what Blockbuster did was illegal.

Google has a product called Reader, which allows people to share documents online. I've only glanced at it for the first time today, and was quite surprised to see that some of my "friends" (again, "friends" as defined by Google's technical definition, not by my own) had placed documents online for me to read. Not that I was interested in them, mind you. Google recently — and suddenly — changed how the documents are shared. Instead of sharing them with a few select individuals, the documents you placed into Reader are now available to everyone on your Gmail (Google email) contact list.

Well, as can be imagined, this provoked quite a backlash from users. People who rely on Google for their business and personal email now suddenly find that Google is sharing documents inappropriately — with gaffes ranging from sharing personal husband-wife communications with business contacts, or sharing confidential business information with business rivals.

There's a few lessons here. First, that social-networking sites sometimes forget that in the real world, not all network contacts are the same — people disaggregate their contacts into groups and don't treat them all equally. Second, social networking web sites live and die by the number of contacts, and therefore have the incentive to continually push you to share more and more information and increase the number of contacts. Finally, if you want to avoid gaffes such as the one that Google just committed, you must retain control over your own data; if you put your business data into the hands of Google there's no guarantee that Google will always act in ways that conform to your business preferences and personal expectations.

Wed, 2007-Dec-19, 05:26

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Amazon Goes from Desperate to Very Desperate

I wrote earlier that Amazon seemed to be in desperate straits: they suddenly abandoned their Internet-savvy roots and decided to start sending spam. I'll now guess that, with the end of the shopping season approaching rapidly, that they've become very desperate — they've sent their second piece of spam in just two days.

Marketing is one thing. Hounding customers with spam is another. What's next, phone calls?

Mon, 2007-Dec-17, 04:45

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Are Poor Sales at Amazon Driving Them to Desperation?

I have my own personal index that tells me if a company is doing well or not: if they suddenly act stupidly, they're likely in trouble. Of all the Internet-savvy companies, Amazon is ordinarily one of the smartest; but today I've received spam from them. Spam? From Amazon? Amazing... and I have to wonder if it's an act of desperation.

I immediately placed Amazon on my "do-not buy" list for twelve months, of course, but when an otherwise smart company does something this stupid I have my suspicions. Sure enough, I see that Amazon's stock price is down. While a tick in the stock price usually isn't enough to unleash the forces of idiocy, drastically falling sales usually are; the two signals (falling stock price and spam) make me suspect that Amazon has very bad news to report in the near future.

Wed, 2007-Dec-12, 13:49

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Trust Me, Didn't I just Lie to You?

Today's junk mail includes yet another letter from SBC, that is, the new AT&T. They sent me a letter marked "important account information" with no company name in the return address, in a transparent attempt to fool me into opening their advertisement. I recognized the return address, but I wanted to compare today's letter to yesterday's letter pleading with me to return to their company.

I have to admit that I'm amazed by this approach to marketing. "Hi, we just lied to you in order to get you to open this letter. Won't you trust us with your business?" I have tried and failed to understand this phenomenon as it defies my analysis. I guess some customers actually do respond to this type of marketing.

Fri, 2007-Aug-03, 05:38

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Six Months Later, A Bad Idea

Six months after I stayed at a La Quinta Inn, they've suddenly decided to start sending me spam, helpfully noting in the text of the spam that I was added on August 1, 2007. I guess some dumb ideas take a long time to percolate through the hierarchy.

As bad ideas go, this one is spectacular. It won't take long for La Quinta to be added to the list of spammers, which means that email I might want to receive from them, such as a reservation confirmation, will be blocked by email filters. Then again, since I won't do business with spammers, I guess that's no longer an issue for me.

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Wed, 2007-May-30, 08:01

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Desperate Emails, But From Chicago

A while back I wrote an article called "Can the Clueless Survive," which discussed how Chase Bank and other clueless institutions would suffer as technology continued to advance. (In case anyone is interested, Chase Bank has moved from ignorant telephone calls to actively ignoring letters from my in-laws. The evidence seems to indicate that Chase has yet to master the intricacies of the written word, much less new-fangled innovations such as the telephone.)

But I've just turned off email from yet another clueless vendor; in this case, an outfit that calls itself NXTComm. NXTComm puts on an industry trade show; I registered for their conference; but that doesn't mean I want to receive email from them twice a day. I've just turned off the email address that I used to receive email from them, which means all their mail will come back with bounce messages that read "Too much trivial email." I've been lazy, however, and I haven't implemented Disposable Phone Numbers, which means that I may be on the receiving end of automated telephone calls.

I used to think that a barrage of email was a mark of desperation on the part of a vendor, but lately I've decided it's just cluelessness. Now that email systems — at least for the technically minded — can automatically dispose of unwanted messages, balance has been restored between the sender and receiver. The senders took advantage of the decline of the clerk and personal secretary to gain attention; technology has finally delivered some effective strategies; cluelessness once again carries its own punishment.

Mon, 2007-Mar-26, 14:28

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Killjoys and Ball Bearings: How Apple Ruined my MacBook

Like anyone with a technical background, there's nothing that makes my day more than receiving a bright shiny new piece of equipment in the mail. Whether I receive something small and intricate, or something large and expensive, it doesn't make a different. A friend of mine in Israel once purchased and handed out large ball-bearings to his friends — "See, something high-tech that you can purchase for less than an Israeli pound!" — and we all appreciated the thought.

When my new Apple MacBook came, I thought I'd enjoy setting it up and owning it — and I did enjoy the look and feel of a really splendid machine. But I hadn't reckoned with the killjoys in the Apple marketing department, who managed to turn my initial impression so far around that I'm seriously considering abandoning the machine entirely.

When I first turned it on, the machine insisted that I not only provide it with a a login name, but wouldn't let me proceed with turning on the machine until I had selected a photograph of myself to turn into an icon. Now I can understand that the computer would ask politely if I wanted an icon of me; but not that it insist on one before I could turn it on. And, without my permission, the system is throwing that icon of me at every single program that might possibly want one, and it broadcasting it all over the Internet.

Oh, and while I am not "required" to register, the system wouldn't let me proceed with using the software until I filled out the registration form. I used some random series of characters to fill out the form — which it promptly sent off to Apple headquarters, without my permission.

Next came listening to a piece of music. Apple not only copies it into iTunes, but uses the opportunity to try and make me register (again) for iTunes. And any program in the machine that requires an email address always asks for my ".mac" account information — I don't have a ".mac" account, and I doubt I ever will.

So, the joy is off the machine. Using it is a chore instead of a pleasure. Over the next few days I'll try it out some more, and if I can get it running, fine; any trouble, and they've used up their entire reservoir of good will, and back to Apple it will go. Frankly, I'm inclined to return it regardless.

The lesson? Don't mix marketing into every aspect of computer ownership — disaggregate marketing from the experience of using the computer. Let your customers enjoy their computers instead of driving them crazy with make-works tasks that fit your company's needs, not the customers' needs.

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Tue, 2007-Jan-30, 07:55

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AT&T Joins the Hall of Shame

Let's add AT&T to the list of companies generating ill-will by sending spam. I gave SBC my email address back in 2003 when I entered a repair order for my telephone line; today I've received an "eBill" for my phone number. It's a transparent attempt to market AT&T's paperless billing.

I've reported AT&T to the spam authorities, although I expect getting them listed as spammers is probably hopeless. But they have managed to convince me to move my home telephone line away from AT&T's service as soon as I can possibly find an alternative provider.

Wed, 2007-Jan-24, 20:26

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Doing Well by Doing Good: Brilliant Marketing by Second Life

Earlier today I was thinking of how certain companies stomp all over their biggest supporters. Apple is famous for intimidating bloggers who reveal any information about Apple products; lately it's threats against anyone who "skins" a phone to make it look like an iPhone.

I was thinking to myself how smart it would be for a company to encourage, rather than discourage, people who use discarded or neglected bits of intellectual property. If your fan base finds something of value that only they care about, and the money is insignificant, why not just let the fans work hard to spread buzz about your product?

This evening I received a link from a friend of mine to a blog comment written by the lawyers from Second Life. Someone had created a parody web site called "Get a First Life." The usual way this story goes is that the lawyers write to threaten the parody web site; since they're lawyers, and since the parodist can hardly afford a day in court, the parodist closes the site and the joke is over.

Not the lawyers for Second Life, however:

We do not believe that reasonable people would argue as to whether the website located at http://www.getafirstlife.com/ constitutes parody — it clearly is. Linden Lab is well known among its customers and in the general business community as a company with enlightened and well-informed views regarding intellectual property rights, including the fair use doctrine, open source licensing, and other principles that support creativity and self-expression. We know parody when we see it.
Moreover, Linden Lab objects to any implication that it would employ lawyers incapable of distinguishing such obvious parody. Indeed, any competent attorney is well aware that the outcome of sending a cease-and-desist letter regarding a parody is only to draw more attention to such parody, and to invite public scorn and ridicule of the humor-impaired legal counsel. Linden Lab is well-known for having strict hiring standards, including a requirement for having a sense of humor, from which our lawyers receive no exception.

The lawyers then go on to remove any doubt over the right of the parodist to modify Second Life's logo by granting him a license. This is brilliant, brilliant, brilliant, the triumph of common sense, and a move guaranteed to bring Second Life enormous good will.

Fri, 2007-Jan-05, 08:46

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Huge Opportunity in Cell Phone Services?

The major cell phone companies — Verizon, AT&T, and perhaps others — continue their relentless march to intrude your phone service by introducing advertising on mobile phones. AT&T thinks it will make billions in the advertising industry, which I will have to see to believe. It's the kind of imposition that can only be achieved by an oligarchy — any real competition would instantly squash advertising on cell phones. No wonder the cell phone companies continue to fight against city-wide wireless Internet services, which might provide some competition.

But if they really go through with it, I suspect we'll see golden opportunities. First, more people will find a way to switch to mobile devices that use voice over the wireless Internet instead of cellular service; but more importantly, business people will be willing to pay a premium for service that does not have advertising. I have to wonder where that service will come from and who will provide it.